As you read this, live bidding will have begun for “Grails: Property from an Iconic Digital Art Collection Part II” from Sotheby’s.
Official site here: https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2023/grails-part-ii
Our valuations here: https://www.deepnftvalue.com/token-sets/sothebys-grails-part-ii
There are 37 lots, although most of the attention has been on “The Goose” — this iconic Ringer sold of 1,800 ETH in August 2021. It is rumored to go for more than $3M later today. Flat in ETH terms despite the falling NFT art market.
We are very much low on The Goose. We will get into why later, and in subsequent posts. There are also 36 other lots to auction shortly, most of which we have priced with our algorithms on the DeepNFTValue website.
For convenience and time-stamping before the auction, we have also put our pricing in a public Google Doc, arranged by Lot Number:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L_nul1nCiy7KBL2aNceQSaXvsswSjAlbRxTcbLMStHo/edit?usp=sharing
There isn’t space nor time to discuss 30+ lots, but here’s a. few thoughts, and items that stand out.
Assuming $3M for The Goose, it’s worth about as much as the other lots combined — maybe that’s why this is such a large auction.
Only one other item has come into live bidding with a bid above our fair value price — Fidenza 479 — the Black & White Micro [very unique]
Most other items are around our fair value, and a few have had bids 20-30% less than our values — pricing in 20% auction fee
As such, I expect the auction to proceed pretty quickly. Most lots are fairly priced already, and I expect fireworks to be concentrated on. a few rare and interesting items.
Rare Fidenzas
Most of the Fidenzas come from the 3AC collection. Those guys preferred grails. As such, most of their 30+ Fidenzas have rare colors, shapes, or some other unique feature.
You can seen this in our valuation of the 3AC / Sotheby’s Grails wallet. The average Fidenza is worth 175 ETH according to our model — more than 2x the current ~80 ETH floor. https://www.deepnftvalue.com/wallets/0x3618190bd2334fa48404bfe42179fbdb8c65b8d3
I guess the question is, with The Goose, and rare Black & White Micro Fidenza #479, as well as other grails… will some of these premiums slide under the radar?
My guess is not. There are only 6x Fidenza on the docket. All are pretty unique. I think they all go for 1.5x floor or more.
Strange Ringers
Specifically I mean not The Goose, but the other Ringers on sale. So far the bids are $80K-$95K, a bit below our expected price. We expect these more in the 90-120 ETH range. I think they get there, assuming multiple bidders… but a low-ish sale would not shock me. Seems like a candidate to slide through the cracks.
Archetype Cube
This sold for 420 ETH two years ago. One of 10 cubes. We have it at 108 ETH now. Might go lower but I think we get close. https://www.deepnftvalue.com/asset/archetype-by-kjetil-golid/397
Perfect Spectrum Squiggle
This sold for 235, we have it for 171 ETH now. https://www.deepnftvalue.com/asset/chromie-squiggle-by-snowfro/1780
Only 22/10,000 Squiggles have perfect Spectrum. I think we get some bids in 100’s or even 200’s possibly.
CryptoPunks
None of the three Punks on sale are super premium. All will go for floor to 1.5x floor max. Going into auction, we have more of less floor bids.
Autoglyph + Eternal Pump
Both collections are rare, and elite. Both sell pretty rarely. We have the Autoglyph at 278 ETH and the Eternal Pump at 190 ETH. Both pretty normal prices for those collections if you just do a moving average on past sales. But hard to do a moving average when these don’t sell for months. And many that do move off-exchange for unknown prices.
Going into the auction bids were below our values. Looking forward to some price discovery.
OK — let’s see how these predictions look shortly!